Era of the downwardly mobile graduate?

Partners:

With nearly five million graduates now working in non-graduate roles, recent reports have warned of a new political threat: the ‘downwardly mobile graduate’. Burdened by debt, underemployed and politically disillusioned, will this new demographic turn on the parties who sold them the dream?

The Blairite mantra, ‘Education, education, education’, once signalled the ambition of creating a ‘learning society’ to overcome decades of economic woes. By expanding university places, Britain was to be transformed into ‘a high-skill society, competing in the global economy by virtue of brain power and innovation’. But while New Labour’s target of sending half of all 18- to 30-year-olds to university has been achieved, few believe this has delivered the promised transformation.

Instead, the job market is flooded with (over)qualified candidates and many graduates, especially post-pandemic, face grim prospects. Arts students have long struggled with the employment market, but now graduates in traditionally solid fields like accountancy, engineering and medicine also face challenges. Rampant grade inflation means that ‘good’ qualifications no longer stand out, with 32 per cent of students gaining first-class degrees, double the proportion of a decade earlier. AI also poses a threat, especially to white-collar jobs: job hunting site Adzuna shows entry-level and graduate vacancies have dropped by a third since the launch of ChatGPT.

Consequently, universities now struggle to explain their value. While the employer-friendly promise of developing ‘critical thinking skills’ might once have worked, today many undergraduate courses appear unable to cultivate basic intellectual competencies. And while studying a subject for its own sake can be worthwhile, many courses now demand little in terms of reading, discussion and critique, so degrees may no longer appear the most fulfilling or financially savvy way to become educated.

How can we improve the prospects of graduates? Are disaffected university leavers likely to offer a challenge to the status quo, or might they drift into disengagement, as in China, where educated youth increasingly withdraw? Can the system be reformed to serve both students and staff – or should universities cut places and reinstate selectivity? In a world of falling wages and rising automation, does doing a degree still make sense?