20 years in Afghanistan: what happened?
Partners:
In April, US President Joe Biden announced it was ‘time to end the forever war’ in Afghanistan, with all troops to be removed from the country by 11 September – 20 years to the day since the al-Qaeda terror attacks on the World Trade Centre. In doing so, Biden was upholding the February 2020 agreement that his predecessor, Donald Trump, had struck between the US and the Taliban.
In July, Biden moved the timetable forward to 31 August, dismissing concerns that the Taliban could regain control as ‘highly unlikely’. On 6 August, the Taliban had taken control of its first province; by 15 August, they had entered the Afghan capital, Kabul, and President Ashraf Ghani had fled the country. American helicopters could be seen evacuating the US embassy in scenes reminiscent of the fall of Saigon. In the end, it took just 11 days for the entire Western-backed Afghan army and government to collapse.
The lightning speed of the Taliban takeover appears to have taken the world by surprise, sparking recriminations and leaving tens of thousands trying to flee the country. What, if anything, did 20 years of Western occupation achieve and what are we to make of the rapid fall of Afghanistan?
Even the original purpose of the war in Afghanistan now seems contested. In July, Biden insisted the US had achieved its initial and primary objective, ‘to ensure Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our homeland’. Yet, there was also a clear nation-building agenda. Since 2001, the US has spent more on nation-building in Afghanistan than in any country ever. The money spent has far outstripped the amount spent on the Marshall Plan after the Second World War, with Washington allocating an additional $133 billion for reconstruction, aid programmes and support to bolster the Afghan security forces.
But the imposition of a centralised state, Western-style democratic processes and the attempt to establish a free-market economy were bestowed upon an ancient, tribal society that is deeply religious, prefers barter to money and has little domestic produce to export. In 2013, over a decade into the nation-building exercise, a Pew Research Center report found that 99 per cent of Afghans would welcome sharia law as the official law in their country.
With the withdrawal of Western forces now complete, will 20 years of Western-led occupation and the promotion of liberal-democratic values have an impact on the future of Afghanistan, or will conservative, religious values predominate? Has military intervention and nation-building had a small, but positive impact or was attempting to impose democracy from above simply a doomed act of Western hubris?
What are we to expect from the newly resurgent Taliban? Will they respect women’s rights and ensure Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorists, or has 20 years of war simply left the terrorists back in charge? And what does the entire episode tell us about the broader balance of power in the world? Is this the beginning of the end for Western dominance, as it gives way to China?
